I’m out of town at the moment so I don’t have time for a full post this morning, but looking at the last few forecast model runs, it’s looking increasingly likely that RVA and the 95 corridor will only be brushed by the edge of this next system coming in Saturday evening and Sunday, which means a dusting to an inch at the most. Areas east of 95 will likely not see anything at all.
After this weekend, a nice little warm up is on the way for next week.
Though I can’t rule out a few more (lighter) snow showers this evening, by and large we’re done with the snow. Overnight temperatures will sit just above freezing (at or just below freezing from Ashland into northern Virginia). I do expect some slick spots early tomorrow morning but temperatures will quickly climb into the low 50s. We’ll stay dry into Friday and the first half of the weekend, then we’ll have to contend with our next potential winter weather system, due to arrive Sunday. Right now, this one looks like it will dump the most snow out towards Roanoke, but a shift in the track could send some of that into Richmond. More details to come in the next few days.
Models are coming into better agreement regarding the mid-week winter weather potential. This system will happen in two parts: the first part moves through the area on Tuesday with rain, mainly before noon. Then, late Tuesday night into very early Wednesday, round two arrives with what should be mostly snow, maybe a snow/rain mix for areas south and east of Richmond. Surface temperatures will be only marginally supportive of accumulation, so unless the snow comes down hard/fast enough, we’re only looking at maybe 1 to 3 inches of a slushy, wet snow for the metro Richmond area on Wednesday. Higher amounts of more than 4″ will be limited to northern Virginia. Overnight low temperatures could be sitting right at the freezing mark late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, so I expect at least some slick spots early Thursday morning before temps warm into the mid to upper 40s.
That’s where things stand right now. There’s still time for things to shift/change but generally this is not looking like a major event for most of our area.
There is a slight chance of showers today, mostly across northern Virginia but I think Richmond stays dry for the most part. Then another system heads our way Tuesday with rain, but as that system exits, models show a new system trying to develop on the back side of that one, and it’s that second system on Wednesday that *might* bring us some more wet snow, or a rain/snow mix. It’s still a bit too far out to say with any certainty but it’s at least a possibility at this point. More on that as we get closer.
Had enough of the cold and snow? Things are looking a little better in the six day forecast. We’ll be mostly sunny through the end of the week before our next chance for rain arrives Saturday with a few light showers.
Well…obviously this is a bit more than “dusting to an inch.” So sorry folks. The snow came down at a rate which allowed colder air aloft to be pulled down to the surface, overcoming temperatures a few degrees above freezing, and allowing the snow to start sticking even to roads.
Temperatures will dip below freezing overnight, so issues on the roads are likely tomorrow morning, before temps get up into the low 40s by around 10am. Skies will clear tonight and we’ll see mostly sunny skies tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 40s, though it will also be breezy.
We’ll stay dry through the rest of the week and see temperatures gradually climb to the low 60s by this weekend.
Snow map updated 6:05am; looking like we may even have trouble reaching the lower end of the totals for just about every corner of the state.